股票是怎么升值的?
1. 概念解释,什么是投资股(investor stock)? 什么是投机股 (speculator's stock)? A stock is an ownership share in a publicly traded corporation, which has the right to one or more votes and/or dividends paid out by that company. If you buy shares of Disney, then you own part of it — your "stock" —and when they next pay out their quarterly dividend of $0.34 per share ($0.78 for every two shares), you get yours.
If enough other people want those Disney dividends too, then their prices go up on the market. When all stocks are selling at higher than intrinsic value(内在价值)—their true worth minus the current income stream-that's inflation, pure and simple. The trick with most financial markets is that nobody cares about intrinsic value;what matters is what everyone else thinks the stock will be worth tomorrow. Stocks become speculative, meaning investors aren’t really interested in owning part of any particular business, but rather betting on how much others might be willing to spend for a piece of their dream company. Thus speculators can drive prices ever upwards;they don’t need anyone actually paying them more than their true value for anything. All that matters to these traders is who wants to sell the most, not whether anybody wants to buy at this price today! This makes speculation a very dangerous game indeed: if everybody suddenly realizes how wildly mispriced some assets have gotten, panic takes over.Prices fall like a rock from nowhere, taking everybody down with them. That’s why I always prefer investor stocks: companies whose future earnings prospects are solidly based on economics而不是市场情绪或政治事件——stocks whose price movements reflect changes in fundamentals instead of irrational exuberance or despair! In fact,these “safe” stocks often provide better returns than even well-known growth stocks such as Apple Computer Inc…
2、从宏观来说:通货膨胀,货币贬值 从微观上来说:公司盈利增长 股价上涨 对于大多数普通投资者而言,关心的是后一个问题:公司盈利的增长。
影响企业盈利水平的主要因素是经济增长和估值调整。在经济发展阶段不同的时候,其主导作用不一样。在一个高速发展的经济体中,经济增速起决定性的作用;而在一个成熟的经济体中,估值的变化更为重要一些。对于中国的股市来说,过去十几年的情况基本可以归结为:经济高成长+估值的快速扩张